The lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation, a heart disease that causes an irregular and often abnormally fast heart rate, has increased from 1 in 4 to 1 in 3 people over the past 20 years, according to a study published in . BMJ.

Two in five people with the disease are likely to develop heart failure for the rest of their lives, and one in five will experience a stroke, but there was a clear improvement in risk over the 20-year study period. are rarely or never seen.

Once atrial fibrillation develops, patient care primarily focuses on the risk of stroke, but other complications such as heart failure and heart attack have not yet been fully investigated. To address this knowledge gap, researchers analyzed national data on 3.5 million Danish adults aged 45 and older with no history of atrial fibrillation. We investigated whether they had developed the disease.

All 3,62,721 people (46% women and 54% men) who were newly diagnosed with atrial fibrillation but had no complications during this period, and who were subsequently diagnosed with heart failure, stroke, or heart attack. A follow-up survey was conducted. The results showed that the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation increased from 24% in 2000-2010 to 31% in 2011-22. This increase was greater in men and in individuals with a history of heart failure, heart attack, stroke, diabetes, or chronic kidney disease. The most common complication among patients with atrial fibrillation was heart failure (41% lifetime risk). This was twice the lifetime risk of stroke (21%) and four times the lifetime risk of heart attack (12%).

Men showed a higher lifetime risk of heart failure (44% vs. 33%) and heart attack (12% vs. 10%) complications after AF than women; The lifetime risk of subsequent stroke was slightly lower for men. women (21% vs. 23%);

Over the 23-year study period, there was virtually no improvement in the lifetime risk of heart failure after AF (43% in 2000-10 and 42% in 2011-22); decreased only slightly (4-5%). The lifetime risk of stroke, ischemic stroke, and heart attack after atrial fibrillation was similar for men and women. Because this is an observational study, no clear conclusions can be drawn about cause and effect.