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Thanks to research we funded, a new risk calculator will help identify people with type 2 diabetes who are at increased risk of developing heart and circulatory disease with greater accuracy than ever before.

We see a medical worker wearing a blue scrub and a stethoscope around his neck, and a patient wearing a white blouse, cardigan, and pink pants. They are sitting next to each other on the sofa. The medical professional holds the device on the tip of the patient's left index finger and pricks the skin to draw a drop of blood. This drop of blood is then used to test the patient's blood sugar levels.

By identifying people who are at high risk years in advance, doctors can prevent future heart attacks and strokes and provide important preventive treatments that can save lives.

The risk calculator is included in new European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines advising doctors on the management of cardiovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes, published at the ESC Annual Meeting in August.

Around 4.5 million people in the UK have type 2 diabetes and a third of adults with diabetes die from heart or circulatory disease.

SCORE2-Diabetes risk calculator published in European Heart Journalallows doctors to estimate the risk of developing heart or circulatory disease over the next 10 years with significantly improved accuracy. New algorithms extend existing algorithms. SCORE2 Risk Calculatorused throughout Europe from 2021.

much higher accuracy

To build the new algorithm, an international team led by researchers at the University of Cambridge used more than 10 years of anonymous data from around 230,000 people with type 2 diabetes and no history of heart or circulatory disease in seven countries. Did.

During the 10-year follow-up, more than 43,000 cardiovascular events, including fatal and non-fatal heart attacks and strokes, occurred.

Researchers tested SCORE2-Diabetes on data from more than 210,000 people from four European countries and found that it was able to estimate the risk of people with type 2 diabetes with much higher accuracy than the original algorithm.

The risk tool was then statistically “recalibrated” using region-specific cardiovascular and risk factor data to more accurately estimate cardiovascular risk depending on country of residence.

Thanks to this recalibration feature, the researchers say SCORE2-Diabetes is an improvement over existing diabetes-specific models, but the model is unique in Europe’s diverse population and in patients with heart disease and cardiovascular disease. It cannot accommodate variations in disease incidence.

Researchers plan to continually readjust the algorithm to reflect changes in cardiovascular disease rates and risk factors in the population over time.

“Precious progress”

Professor Sir Naresh Samani, our Medical Director, said: “People with diabetes are almost twice as likely to die from heart disease or stroke overall as people without diabetes.

“This increased risk can be significantly reduced through interventions such as blood pressure management and statins, but this requires better identification of those at increased risk.

“SCORE2-Diabetes is a valuable advancement that allows physicians to customize preemptive treatment for patients with type 2 diabetes based on their individual risk for heart and circulatory disease.

“Such approaches are essential as clinicians across the UK and Europe find new ways to reduce the high health deterioration associated with diabetes.”

success of our research

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